TheCable

BY WALE AMEEN

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Lagos state governor and national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), recently announced his intention to run for the office of the president, albeit to President Muhammadu Buhari. The question is: what are his chances, and what will a Tinubu presidency look like? Does he have the capacity to bring the country out of the doldrums of insecurity, inflation, and nepotism currently bedevilling the nation?

For a nation ravaged by insecurity in the north, where bandits and insurgents reign supreme, to issues of marginalisation in the south, a nation largely divided along ethnic lines, plus a fragile and largely import-dependent economy, Nigeria needs an astute technocrat who understands the dynamics and can manage a nation as diverse as Nigeria.

After what seemed like an eternity, the former Lagos state governor, specifically on Monday, January 10, finally admitted what was pretty much an open secret: his intention to run for the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

The maverick politician, popularly referred to as Jagaban, confirmed to Nigerians that he had indeed informed the president of his intention to run for the number one office in the land. This he did in the presidential villa conference room, a few metres away from the president’s office.

How symbolic? You might say.

Since then, Tinubu has been the subject of discourse among political watchers, pundits, and a general lot of Nigerians. Many have written about the man, his ambition, possibilities, his chances and have argued either for or against his candidacy as the presidential flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress in the coming 2023 presidential election.

Diverse opinions across the country

The question on the lips of many has been: can or should Tinubu become Nigeria’s next president? The answer to this, quite, unfortunately, has largely been along ethnic lines. 

For the Igbos who make up the south-east, this is a no-no. This is because their stand at the moment is that it is the turn of the Igbos to produce the next president and any shift from this view is outrightly a no-deal for them.

For the northerners, there appears to be a split in the feedback coming from that end. A section of northerners appears to prefer a consolidation of the north’s streak in power, while others (who are already forming coalitions) believe it is indeed time to reward Tinubu for his ‘selflessness’.

What does a Tinubu presidency mean for Nigeria’s economy?

Should Tinubu go on to become the APC flagbearer and go ahead to win the presidential election, one can expect that he will largely borrow from his time as Lagos governor.

Even though he has yet to release a comprehensive blueprint of what his administration will be focused on should he truly win, he has been giving insights into this. He recently teased, in a viral video where he was seen addressing some APC members, that his government would be about breaking shackles. There, he also promised that his government would see to the payment of the WAEC fees of all secondary school students. 

But, in truth, Nigeria, at the moment, needs a lot more than this.

Nigeria needs a unifier; a man who is not blinded by nepotism but can surround himself with professionals who can set the economy of the country on track. 

A major challenge that has been identified as the bane of Nigeria’s progress is the lack of competent leaders.

This much was echoed by former President Olusegun Obasanjo during the launch of a book titled, “Making Africa Work”, co-authored by himself and three others.

“We are not short of policies; In fact, go to any government office or some international organisations, you’d find hundreds of policies and recommendations,” Obasanjo said.

“So what is the problem? I’d say three major things and if you like the three major problems confluence in one: Leadership, Continuity, and Finance.”

So, can Tinubu really match up?

Insecurity, unemployment, inflation, and a rising debt profile that portend danger for the country, if not properly managed, are some of the challenges the next president will have to take up.

A United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report last year said almost 350,000 lives were claimed in insurgency-related conflicts in the north-eastern part of Nigeria up till the end of 2020. Meanwhile, as of September 2021, records have it that the Nigerian government had incurred a debt stock of N38 trillion, representing a N5 trillion increase from its previous N33 trillion as of December 2020. Some experts have warned that the nation may be sliding into a dangerous era if this is not properly managed. This is even as the naira continues to face a reduction in value and purchasing power daily.

As regards inflation, Nigeria’s inflation rate as of November 2021 stood at 15.99 percent and the Central Bank of Nigeria projects that it will hopefully drop to a single-digit rate by 2022.

Nigerians need to know how Tinubu intends to deal with these challenges and grow the nation’s economy. This is what will essentially tell if he is indeed capable.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu sure has a lot going for him as even his traducers will agree that he is not someone to dismiss with a wave of the hand. One thing is clear, the man knows what he wants and knows how to go for what he desires. Time here holds the ace and will tell how this will pan out.

Ameen is a Nigerian journalist and can be reached via [email protected]