TheCable

In terms of size, physical structures and national spread, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the leading opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), are clearly ahead of the other political organisations in Nigeria. That’s the reality today. In most established democracies around the world, national elections are usually straight contests between the party in power and its main rival. In the United States, for instance, the Republican Party and Democratic Party predictably and constantly alternate the occupancy of White House between themselves. Same for Britain where the Labour and Conservative parties dominate.

For Nigeria, however, considering the relatively young age of her democracy, that phenomenon has not yet become a tradition. The interplay of contending variables is ongoing and the wish of lovers of the preferred system of government is to ultimately arrive at the desired destination marked by equilibrium. For most citizens, these are not the best of times which may translate to unpredictability especially in the thought processes and decisions of electoral solicitors, their followers and voters.

Justa year ago, not many pundits saw the symbolic emergence of, say, Mr. Peter Obi, Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party (LP), and Senator Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, flag-holder of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). While skeptics and cynics are busy writing off the former as a mere social media sensation and the latter as nothing more than a Kano State tiger, upsets cannot be ruled out as the five months before the polls can still produce shocks if adequately utilised. Nothing is impossible, after all. By 2023, APC and PDP will have cumulatively run the affairs of this country for 24 years since the beginning of the current republic in 1999. The generality of citizens wouldn’t agree that their existence has now fared better. Critical socio-economic indices bear witness to this sad situation. If Nigerian people then decide, in a moment of rare self-discovery, aggressive dissatisfaction or illumination, to go for fresh platforms in search of pragmatic progress, the two giants can be taught lessons.

Even though discontentment with the prevailing bitter conditions may point to possible surprises in next year’s polls, a careful look at the current configurations and tendencies within APC and PDP would position us to better understand and digest the overall political firmament as the races for various seats get underway. In about two weeks’ time, campaigns will commence, pushing onto the centre stage the promises the gladiators have to offer the people of Nigeria, many of whom are hoping against hope that they would witness the country’s desperately needed rebirth in their own lifetime.

How have the two parties fared since their primaries in late May and early June this year? As expected, the focus and thrust of analyses have dwelt largely on the preparations put in place by the presidential trains. The APC, having elected a former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, must be fully aware of the task of convincing Nigerians that continuing with its legacies in government is the best option left to it. It’s noteworthy that the choice of Tinubu, while not completely ruling out lingering grievances and reservations among his erstwhile competitors, has so far not visibly threatened the cohesive energies within the party. It’s on record too that as far as eyes could see, the proceedings inside Eagle Square in Abuja during that election were transparent.

Equally remarkable is the choice of Tinubu’s running mate, a former Governor of Borno State, Senator Kashim Shettima. The anger, resentment and confusion that greeted the same-faith ticket would have ebbed considerably but may in fact not clear up totally before the contest next February. The factors that inform Tinubu’s obstinacy – his refusal to drop Shettima for a northern Christian – are not very clear at the moment, except that what appears to mean a lot to him is to be seen by Nigerians as someone who is moved only by his convictions and who can stick to his guns no matter the vicissitudes that surface. Since the APC presidential campaign organisation was inaugurated, its imagemakers have had their plates full with social media-saturated gist like the controversies surrounding Tinubu’s origin, age, health status, certificates and source(s) of his stupendous wealth. Past and potential scandals like the presence of some Christian clerics (believed to be rented) at Shettima’s official unveiling can be trusted to fizzle away as Nigerians are blessed with short memory, mutual indifference and a disturbing inability to frontally and collectively confront threats to their general wellbeing. To Put it coolly, Nigerians ‘move on’ easily.

The PDP, a group that once dreamt of running the affairs of the nation for at least 60 years, has unwittingly managed to attract to itself the image of an institution that is unsure of what to prioritise in its own shopping list. With only seven years out of the nation’s driver’s seat in the present dispensation, PDP, after what seemed to be a successful staging of its presidential primary at the Moshood Abiola National Stadium in Abuja less than four months ago, has been at war with itself since then. Interestingly, like APC’s outing, no direct rigging was reported.

But Governor Nyesome Wike of Rivers State, arguably the party’s most dependable pillar at a time has now turned its worst intractable personality. All the major matters that have troubled PDP in recent times – the ethics and influences that midwifed Waziri Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate, the choice of Delta State Governor, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, as Abubakar’s deputy, and the retention of Senator Iyorchia Ayu as national chairman-are traceable to Wike. In my view, last week’s vote of confidence passed on Ayu by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) should have been Wike’s point to soften up and accept the supremacy of his party. Posterity can still judge him as a fighter for noble causes. Instead he has continued to avoid the conciliatory path. While his supporters see him as a champion of social justice and equity, his foes label him as self-serving and belligerent. What exactly to do with Wike has been a debate subject in concerned circles. Sanction him. Pamper him. Compensate him in whatever form is agreeable. Ignore him. Whichever option is taken has its consequences. One thing PDP cannot afford now, though, is to further waste housekeeping time. One other thing: Solving one man shouldn’t be too tough for an entity that ruled Nigeria for 16 unbroken years and now seeks a return to the saddle at the various tiers of government. The party could be steering itself along a road to electoral misadventure and corporate ruin if it doesn’t take decisive steps soon.

Another critical political transition is by the corner as the incumbent president will not be on the ballot. The only time that has happened in the country’s democratic sojourn was in 2007 at the end of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s two terms. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has repeatedly given assurances about its readiness to organise excellent elections. Good for all. The parties, most especially APC and PDP, should also rise to the occasion and yield themselves as agents of enduring, result-oriented socio-political engineering. Hopefully, they have enough robust frameworks, programmes and operations to creatively engage the electorate.

Our democracy can seriously no longer be called nascent. But then, there are too many gapping holes in the one we practice to be left in its existing form. Much would depend on the productive participation and success of the parties.

Dr Ekpe is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board.