TheCable

Prominent corporate lawyer and former NBA President, Olumide Akpata, 51, is running for governor of Edo state on the platform of the Labour Party. The election is scheduled for September next year. Announcing his aspiration last week, Akpata said he chose the Labour Party because it is people-oriented. But the governor, Godwin Obaseki, prefers another corporate lawyer, Asue Ighodalo, 64, as his successor. APC is yet to make its choice. The stage is therefore set for a titanic electoral battle in Edo with the main combatants being two prominent Lagos lawyers who are also friends. I know both of them, but in this piece, I want to share a few tips with Akpata on what he should expect as he prepares to take on an incumbent who does not brook dissent.

Outgoing governors usually invest all the resources at their disposal, including their emotions, ego and psychology, into installing their preferred successors, so much so that the governor begins to assume that the contest is a personal affront to him. To that extent, Olumide Akpata should have in the back of his mind that he would be contesting against Godwin Obaseki; or to put it more appropriately, he would be confronting the incumbent governor, and he may take it personally.

Succession politics could be a matter of life and death for some exiting chief executives because the power of incumbency is the most potent political force in Nigeria. In fact, since 1999, less than 10 percent of all outgoing governors have failed to put their anointed choices as their replacements. Statistically, the odds do not favour the opposition candidate. You must therefore be well prepared for the battle ahead. I have some experience in this. Since 2015, I have served as a communication consultant to three different opposition governorship candidates in Akwa Ibom state and I can confirm that being an opposition candidate no be moi moi.

The first hurdle to overcome is the issue of zoning, and this depends on how strong this factor is in Edo politics. Obaseki and former governor Lucky Igbenedion are from Edo south, while former governor Adams Oshiomhole is from Edo north. Akpata is from Edo south and Ighodalo from Edo central. Since 1999, central has not produced a governor apart from Prof. Osunbor Oserheimen who was on the seat for only 18 months before he was sacked by a court judgement in 2008 and was replaced by Oshiomhole. Within PDP, the sentiment is that the next governor should come from Edo Central, but Labour and APC have yet to make a categorical statement on their zoning preferences.

In some states like Akwa Ibom, zoning is a very strong factor and so the governorship position moves to another senatorial district every eight years. There is no debate. But if zoning is not such an important consideration in Edo, then Akpata ought not to worry. He should, however, be well prepared to give a convincing justification for why he is running in case voters in Edo central come up with ‘’it is our turn’’ protests. No doubt, Obaseki will definitely play it up.

By the electoral law and INEC guidelines, party primaries are held six months to the election. There is a bit of time to prepare for it, but as a major opposition candidate, Akpata will do well to pay attention to a few important things now. It is crucial that he secures the backing of the national and state leaders of his party. As the national leader, Peter Obi will be an important influence in deciding who secures the nomination, but other NWC and SWC leaders are also very crucial and he should endeavour to establish very close relationships with them.

I am pleased to note that the state chairman of the Labour Party, Kelly Ogbaloi, had already pledged to be fair to all the aspirants. But nothing should be taken for granted. The party executives in Benin will expect Akpata to fund the party handsomely, in addition to making regular cash payments to them ‘’for logistics’’. As we say in this business, he is now the new ATM of the party!

The demands will be many and regular, and if he fails to meet their expectations, the leaders may turn treacherous and back another aspirant, or even an opposition party candidate. They will then give some strange reasons for their about-face; something like: ‘’Akpata is not serious. Politics is not law. We are not joking in this business’’. I have seen it all.

In addition, the rank-and-file supporters will also exert pressure on him for financial gratification. If he does not have a thick skin and deep pocket, he may not accommodate their varied requests – money for food; school fees; hospital bills; house rents; housewarming; wedding; baby dedication and even funeral expenses. In return, they will pledge to ‘’win my Local government 100% because nothing happens in my polling unit without me. I am the one that makes things happen on election day’’. Some may not even have a voter’s card!

As election day approaches, the more senior politicians and party excos will also ask him for money for sundry items – to arrange for security; to settle INEC; to see the DPO or commissioner of police; to see ‘’Abuja’’ or ‘’clear road’’ or for ‘’voter appreciation’’ (another name for vote-buying). They too have their language. ‘’I am on the ground in my ward. On election day, I can commandeer everything. I have been on the ground since the days of Action Group. I have never lost my unit.” I don’t know about Edo, but in my state, there are basic terminologies that convey the message. They include: ‘’trans’’; ‘’close the meeting, etc’’. They all refer to putting down cash to be shared with party members at the end of every meeting.