TheCable

After a two-month hiatus coupled with the punishment of boring international football, the real football is kicking in with the Barclays Premier League –  the richest and most glamorous football league in the world – making a grand entry next weekend. And like an artist set for an appearance on stage, the FA Community Shield taking place this weekend will act as the official announcer.

The Community Shield, a game played in the spirit of sportsmanship with reduced commitment on the turf of the new Wembley stadium, is the permanent august visitor that brings in its wake the Barclays Premier League. However, the FA prides itself in using the event as a means of raising funds for charity and other community projects off-the-field.

The game was moved to a weekend before the season in 1957 to act as a curtain-raiser while the current format of pitting the league champions against the FA Cup winners was introduced in 1974.

The CS has been contested since 1898 with Manchester United having won the silver plate trophy most times (20), while the London duo of Arsenal and Chelsea who are contesting this year’s fanfare have won it 12 and 4 times respectively.

CHELSEA V ARSENAL

Not only is this season’s first match a fierce London derby, it is also another round of fierce rivalry between two managers who publicly show distaste for each other.

Chelsea’s manager and self-styled “Only One” Jose Mourinho loves to goad his Arsenal counterpart, wily-old Arsene Wenger. Mourinho has been picking on Wenger since time immemorial, with his first real attack being his ‘voyeur’ rant a decade ago.

The 52-year old Portuguese has continued in like fashion during pre-season, first calling out another fierce adversary, Rafael Benitez as ‘fat’, mocked Wenger’s splurge of cash in recent seasons (he is no saint on that one!). In the last 24 hours, he has also riled up the Economics professor’s using the 65-year-old’s tattered record of no win against him in 13 attempts (7 losses and 6 draws).

The close season was relatively quiet for both teams but interestingly, they swapped player with experienced shot-stopper Petr Cech crossing the London divide from Chelsea to Arsenal after not being content with spending most of last season on the bench. Wenger, a long time admirer of the head gear-wearing 33-year-old saw this as a perfect opportunity to solve his age-long goalkeeper crisis and duly took it. His presence on Sunday should be an added incentive for Chelsea’s players to get one past their ex-team mate and coupled with Mourinho’s bitter rivalry with Wenger, the stage is set for a high tempered CS match.

PERMUTATION AND STATISTICAL INSIGHTS

My sports editor, in love with statistics and permutations ahead of football matches and piles them up like a sports bettor, was quick to point out that Arsenal have not scored in five games against Chelsea, coupled with Olivier Giroud’s wretched record against big teams, Cech’s goalkeeping prowess, a sturdy Chelsea defence and Mourinho’s neo-defensive approach, this game could be heading for a 0-0 stalemate to be settled on penalties.

However, this game is one of fanfare and I duly expect goals from both teams. Arsenal have a fit-again Theo Walcott who is primed to start in the centre forward role and his speed would be a nightmare for John Terry and co., while Mesut Ozil is already showing his readiness for the season with an impressive pre-season. A fit-again Diego Costa will terrorise any defence any day and Arsenal’s backline doesn’t hold out well but Petr Cech, if he starts, will check his former club’s goal rate but I expect goals in this one.

Forecasting this CS match further using previous years since the advent of the BPL in 1993/94 season shows that:

• Arsenal have won the CS five times while Chelsea has done so four times, therefore the chance to equal their illustrious rivals. Both have however won three each since the turn of the century.
• Only one of Chelsea’s losses has been against a team that did not finish in the top two the previous season (Liverpool in 2006), while all their wins came only against the top two teams from the previous season. An Arsenal win beckons?
• Also, all of Arsenal’s win since the turn of the century have come against the league champions or runner-up from the previous season, and with Arsenal walloping Manchester City 3-0 last season are we in for a repeat?

Although these statistics mostly favours an Arsenal win, Wenger’s wretched record of no win in 13 against Mourinho swings into mind. However, records are meant to be broken.

BIG CALL

Though only 30% of Community shield winners go on to win the league since BPL began in 1993, Chelsea have won the CS thrice in this period and went on to win the league in their last two triumphs of 2005 and 2009. They are also one of only two teams to win the CS and go on to win the league (the other being Manchester United) during this period.

Therefore, if the Pensioners from Stamford Bridge win the Community Shield, expect them to retain the BPL. However, if Arsenal should triumph on Sunday, the BPL Champions WILL be found in Manchester come end of the season.