Localising the ITU Facts and Figures 2025

There is no doubt that cost of connectivity and access to connectivity will remain a valid concern until there is noticeable improvement that guarantees inclusivity for remote domains and for all classes of people.

This is what the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) works for and it also remains the preoccupation of jurisdictional regulators like the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) which ensures that nobody is left behind in the provision of telecommunications services for the people, no matter their class and status in the society.

The NCC has long recognized the existence of service and access gaps in the country and have introduced various measures to tackle the problems. And the Facts and Figures 2025 released on November 17 by the ITU, only accentuated the problem to be global as the world telecommunications body pursues measures to visibly shrink what could be an escalating headache in the years ahead.

Unfortunately, there will always be a world of difference between the haves and have-nots, and between the rich and developed countries and the developing and under-developing countries of the world. The difference is interpreted in figures, in service availability and even in the cost and quality of such services available to peoples of the world in different jurisdictions.

The good story, according to the ITU, is that online connectivity continues to expand, adding about 240million people in 2025. ‘’Globally,’’ the stats would point out, ‘’an estimated 6 billion people – about three quarters of the world’s population – are using the internet in 2025, up from a revised estimate of 5.8 billion in 2024. However, 2.2 billion people remain offline, down from a revised estimate of 2.3 billion in 2024.’’’

‘’In a world where digital technologies are essential to so much of daily life, everyone should have the opportunity to benefit from online,’’ said ITU Secretary-General, Doreen Bogdan-Martin. ‘’This report highlights how today’s digital divides are being defined by speed, reliability, affordability, and skills, all of which must prioritize as we work toward our mission of universal connectivity.’’

The unfortunate flipside of the noticeable growth is that there will always be a segment of the global population that is left behind, a population whose fate is sealed by geographical location, poverty, bad decisions by governments, speed and cost of new technologies and even insecurity, among others.

For instance, the story of 5G technology exemplifies the cost of access. While for the first time, 5G accounts for about one-third – or around 3 billion – of all mobile broadband subscriptions worldwide, the developing world cannot claim to be part of this tech odyssey.

‘’In 2025, 5G networks are estimated to cover 55 per cent of the world’s population, reflecting strong momentum in advanced mobile technologies. Coverage, however, remains uneven, with 84 per cent of people in high-income countries having access to 5G, compared with only 4 per cent in low-income countries,’’ the report highlighted. ‘

But the report also indicates that affordability and digital skills remain essential to achieving universal and meaningful connectivity – reached when everyone can access the Internet with high-quality service, at an affordable cost, whenever and wherever needed.

As it has turned out, wishes are not horses, so the ordinary folks can’t ride with ease. The summary below which is like a telecoms dashboard, tells the story. In spite of the efforts of the ITU, the report underscores the persistence of several digital divides: 94 per cent of people in high-income countries use the internet, in contrast to only 23 per cent in low-income countries; 96 per cent of those offline live in low-and middle-income countries; 77 per cent of men are online compared to 71 per cent of women; 85 per cent in urban areas are online versus 58 per cent in rural areas; and 82 per cent of 15-20-year-olds use the Internet, compared with 72 per cent of the rest of the population.

In trying to localize this report, the question is: where does Nigeria fit in? So much efforts are being inputted in expanding the entire telecommunications sector in order to boost access and connectivity. The government is building a digital economy which has called for the collaborative efforts of the various stakeholders – the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, NCC, industry operators and other stakeholders. The government is planning a 90,000km of nationwide fibre optics cable with a World Bank Facility of $500m. It is one of the cardinal efforts to deepen connectivity and digital inclusion across the country.

After a bold rebasing of the industry last year which saw some operators lose a number of lines in millions, the industry has clawed its way back, with active mobile lines now standing at 173.5million for a population of 220 million, which translates to 80 per cent tele-density. Broadband connectivity stands at 43.34 per cent, representing 106.97 million high-speed internet connections. This is still some considerable miles away from the 70 per cent target set under the National Broadband Plan, NBP 2020-2025.

Some progress have been made, however. But for a country ploughing efforts and resources into building a digital economy, much more is expected. The reason being that 99 per cent of broadband connections are contributed by the mobile sector, which forms a major hub of the growth in economy.

There are worrying concerns for Nigeria however which clearly fits the narrative of the ITU. After two consecutive bids for 5G licenses, MTN, Mafab Communications and Airtel emerged winners and they have since operationalized their licenses as stipulated by their license documents. In some other parts of the world, 5G has become a foundational contributor to broadband penetration because of its inevitable and durable speed and reliability, but in Nigeria 5G lines hover around 5 million contributed in the main by MTN, Airtel and Mafab at a distant rear. And these lines are based in a few cities, few state capitals and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). It is the kind of divide the ITU illustrated in their report; a chunk of the population is obviously being left behind.

It is safe to say that Nigerians are truly not enjoying the benefits of 5G yet. This is hardly surprising because of the $28 billion investment in 5G in Africa, according to the ITU, only one of every hundred person was connected to 5G by 2024. Nigeria falls in this group and it is obviously an area deserving of stronger improvement and attention.

But there are other factors that fuel dwindling connectivity and access in the country. They include: insecurity which affects fresh rollout, expansion and servicing of existing facilities, fibre cuts from construction activities or plain malicious damage (19,384 fibre cut incidents and 3,241 cases of equipment theft by August 2025), multiple regulations and meddlesomeness by states (19,000 cases of denials of access), power failure across the states and even acts of nature that can really be cruel sometimes. Without succumbing to exaggeration, there as communities that have been out of the power grid for more than six months. Those communities have returned to the Stone Age period. My friend lives in one and they have nearly been forgotten by the various authorities.

But there are some concerted efforts to overturn threatening industry misfortunes. The telecommunications sector has been declared Critical National Infrastructure subsumed in the Critical National Information Infrastructure (CNII) Presidential Order signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in June 2024. The regulator is drawing inspiration and activities from the Policies originating from the Ministry, and the Minister Bosun Tijani seems very excited about cooperation from the industry and the international community.

It will not be out of place to suggest that the days for yawning access gaps, cost of connectivity and access to connectivity may be numbered but levelling the terrain still demands a lot of hard work and relationship management. There will also be the need to study the ITU report, Facts and Figures 2025, very closely.