On military politics

The military is a very strategic institution. Everything is regimented, including the way they think. Anything outside this regimentation is politics, and there are consequences. Officers and soldiers are not permitted to act outside the laid-down rules. It’s a strict regime. I will explain. However, before I proceed, I would like to state that this article is not intended for everyone. At the end of this paragraph, you can tell if it is meant for you or not. If it is for you, please go to the next paragraph. And if not for you, please kindly stop reading. The tendency for you to get confused is high. You might end up reading over again and without comprehension. It is an analysis based on “conspiracy theory.” And the conspiracy theory is not friendly. It is complex and intriguing.

If you want to plot a coup, sign your will ahead of time

Coup-plotting is a complex military operation. It requires enormous logistics and covert planning. It can be said to be the most dangerous military operation. Coup plotters sign their will way ahead. The probability of success or failure stands at 50-50. I stand to be corrected. I believed the alleged coup rumour, but disagreed with the chances of its success. I assumed the suspected coup plotters wanted to pull a surprise, away from traditional coup plotting strategies that we read about. That was wishful thinking. For the 26 years of uninterrupted democracy in Nigeria thus far, the military has assumed the role of the protector of democracy. And it has remained unflinching. To date, the military has remained subservient to the political leadership of the country. Maybe the alleged coup plotters were spurred by the wave of successful coups in some neighbouring Francophone countries, specifically Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Nigeria is a different kettle of fish. With due respect, some of these countries could pass for a state in Nigeria, or at best, a combination of two states. The dynamics are different; they are disparate.

Times have indeed changed and made things more difficult for a coup to succeed in our present setup. There is hardly anything you say or do that doesn’t leave a trail and can be detected easily. Especially with advances in technology. Sadly, this is what the alleged coup plotters didn’t realise. And they were not “prime officers.” They were just a Brigadier-General, a colonel, four lieutenant colonels, a lieutenant commander, a squadron leader, five majors, two captains, and a lieutenant. Whoever advised or encouraged them must have acted out of ignorance.

Conspiracy theorists would argue that some “big fish” in the military setup might be involved indirectly. But those in detention cannot mention their names. It is possible and also impossible. But again, we can use the conspiracy theory to analyze if indeed some “big fish” were involved. During the military era, the targets of coups were military leaders. However, in a democracy, it is a combination of both political leaders and military leaders. This is instructive, as it punctures the possibility of the involvement of military leaders. Nevertheless, if it was successful, it would have made history as Nigeria’s bloodiest after the January 15, 1966 coup.

Many fish in the river

The conspiracy theory would lead one to envision that if the coup plot had succeeded, a senior-ranking officer of the rank of Major General or its equivalent in the Navy or Air Force would have taken over the affairs of the country. It would have been impossible for a Brigadier-General to take over, given that there are over 100 actively serving Major Generals and equivalents in the Armed Forces. However, there is a twist. Drawing from the conspiracy theory, there might be a likelihood in that instance that the preferred senior officer to take over might not be aware of the plot, but he must have done something that endeared him to the hearts of the alleged coup plotters. His dilemma would be that if he accepts, he automatically assumes the face of the coup, and if he doesn’t, he stands to be accused all the same. This happened in the 1983 coup that ousted President Shehu Shagari. Major General Muhammadu Buhari was not publicly associated with the coup, but the plotters announced him as the new head of state. He was lucky the coup succeeded. His history would have been celebrated differently.

Seniority is a tradition

There is a tradition in the military. Once your junior assumes a higher position, you are expected to proceed on retirement. To explain further, the military hierarchy is ranked by “regular courses.” In the appointment of service chiefs under a democratic dispensation, they are usually members of the same course, except the Chief of Defence Staff, who is a year or two senior to the other service chiefs. This explains why only the Chief of Defence Staff wears the rank of a four-star general, and the service chiefs wear the ranks of three-star generals. The military always has one four-star general and three three-star generals, much as former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 did not follow the tradition in his appointment of service chiefs. I recall that his Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Ibrahim Ogohi, was a member of course 4, and the Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Victor Malu, was a course 3 and senior to the Chief of Defence Staff. Traditionally, the army is the critical and most senior service arm of the Armed Forces, and as the Commander-in-Chief, that is one constituency you must not lose.

The conspiracy theorist would question the decision of the president in the change of service chiefs recently, arguing that there is more to the story than meets the eye. This is not the first time. In 1999, when Olusegun Obasanjo was sworn in as president, he retired all military officers who once held political appointments. This led to the retirement of 93 military officers. The retired officers were “politically exposed.” Maybe in this case, the bulk of the retired officers were politically exposed. Having the lot in the system might be uncomfortable for the political leadership class. This is not a statement of fact.

Dead-on-arrival

There is also a tradition that whenever there are new service chiefs, the military announces new postings into strategic commands. The essence is for the new service chiefs to place allies in strategic commands to take charge effectively. The last time I checked, under the former service chiefs, the alleged coup plotters did not hold strategic commands, including the elite Guards Brigade. Therefore, the plot was likely dead-on arrival, even if it was real. What is the lesson learnt? A military coup cannot succeed in today’s Nigeria, and any officer who thinks otherwise should have a rethink and perish such thought. It is, at best, suicidal. Especially with the new set of service chiefs. I understand one of them is famously brutal in his operational style, another unpredictable and eagle-eyed, and the other cool, calm, but dangerous. What a combination! Hopefully, this mix portends better days ahead for Nigeria’s internal and external security.

Ocheja, PhD, is a military historian.