TheCable

As it was in 2012, so shall it be in 2015: Audu Abubakar vs Idris Wada in the ultimate race for governorship in Kogi state. A former governor and an incumbent governor will be contesting the November 21 governorship election in the state, yet again.

On Monday, Idris Wada, Kogi state governor, emerged winner of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship primary election, having scored 709 votes to defeat his closest opponent, Isa Echocho, who polled 139 votes.

Although the exercise was assailed with allegations of inducement of delegates by the governor, it progressed without incidents.

Back in August, Abubakar Audu, former governor of the state, had emerged candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in a governorship primary election supervised by Nasir el-Rufai, Kaduna, the state governor.

Now the stage is set for these two heavyweights to square it off in a titanic electoral battle.

While Audu, a two-time governor (1992 to 1993, and 1999 to 2003) may boast of his experience and credentials as a former governor, Wada may find it difficult to woo Kogi people for votes on tangible achievements.

This is not to suggest that Audu has the candy already; because in spite of his clout and strong political architecture in Kogi state, Ibrahim Idris, Wada’s in-law, walloped him in three electoral contests.

Categorically, in 2003, little-known businessman Idris defeated Audu.  And so he did again in 2007, and even at the rerun election – after the earlier election was nullified by the tribunal – in the same year.

Audu: Hasn’t won an election in more than a decade

Also, Wada, a pilot and businessman, defeated Audu in the 2012 governorship election, but it is tricky to say that there will be a repeat this time.

One thing that counts against Audu is the “pride” he supposedly displayed by changing the name of the Kogi State University to Prince Abubakar Audu University, which was later reverted by Idris.

However, this election may present the chance for Audu to atone for all his defeats. The reason is simple. The growing dissatisfaction of the Kogi people with the PDP government and the federal might of the APC are the two likely game changers.

Wada has been criticised for owing staff salaries for months on end. Even with a federal government bailout of N50. 842 billion, the people are still groaning, owing to a cocktail of deductions from their wages. This looks a big minus to his political points.

Although, the owing of staff salaries is not peculiar to Kogi state, the sheer misadventure of it occurring in Wada’s administration is a downer.

Again, Wada has been flayed for not executing a landmark project in Kogi state since 2012 – unlike Audu, who established the first polytechnic and first state university, and attracted investment for the establishment of the Obajana cement plant in the state during his brief period in office. Another downer for the incumbent.

Also, the people of Kogi state may not want to be detached from the centre; hence tuning into to the “change” karaoke.  A typification of political bandwagoning.

All these portend a favourable outcome for Audu, but Wada may spring up a summer surprise. Let’s not forget he roundly defeated Audu before.

In all, the parties of the two candidates may determine which of them will occupy Lugard House in 2016 instead of their personalities or achievements. The effect of political bandwagoning.

Audu was the candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2012.