Tinubu will have a landslide victory in 2027 like Soludo had

Peter Obi should forget about his 2027 presidential ambition. The 2027 presidential election will be an easy election for President Bola Tinubu if he decides to contest. The conditions that aided Peter Obi’s performance in the 2023 presidential elections in Nigeria no longer exist. In fact, all those that benefited from Labour Party’s 2023 fluke know that the party is over. Some commentators even believe that a thorough scrutiny of Peter Obi’s achievement as governor between 2006 and 2014 in Anambra could further expose his underbelly just as the recently concluded gubernatorial elections in Anambra did.

Peter Obi tries to present himself as a leader of a large movement but unlike former President Muhamadu Buhari who was able to consistently pull 12 million votes while he was in the opposition between 2003 and 2011, Peter Obi has no such capacity to continuously pull large votes. (As presidential candidate in the ANPP in 2003, Buhari got 12,710,022 votes and as presidential candidate in the CPC in 2011 he got 12,214,853 votes). In fact, what happened in 2023 is unlikely to happen again. Since 2023, Peter Obi’s support has not been able to amount to significant votes for his preferred candidates. From Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata in Edo State – a state that was Labour Party’s stronghold in 2023 – to George Moghalu, the Labour Party’s candidate in Peter Obi’s home state of Anambra, Peter Obi’s support has not had any impact. Any political party thinking that Peter Obi can pull anything close to the 6,101,533 recorded against his name in 2023 is not a serious party.
The Labour Party’s surprising loss at Peter Obi’s polling booth in his village to President Bola Tinubu’s APC last Saturday in the just concluded Anambra gubernatorial election and Peter Obi’s subsequent defence for this loss say a lot about Obi’s popularity, his personality and his politics.

Peter Obi’s handlers have tried to defend this loss. They cite voter inducement and all kinds of weak arguments. But what kind of inducement would make a Muhammadu Buhari – in his heydays as leader of the opposition – lose an election in his polling booth? As leader of Nigeria’s major opposition party, Muhammadu Buhari’s support was an automatic ticket in his strong hold. This is what Peter Obi does not have. Obi has no base! (His 2023 performance were mainly because of some emotions). Muhammadu Buhari’s influence was largely responsible for ANPP’s Ibrahim Shekarau victory in 2003 in Kano. Ibrahim Shekaru ran against the incumbent governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso – who was then in the PDP which was the party at the center – and won. Buhari’s support was also significantly responsible for Ali Modu Sheriff’s victory (Borno, ANPP, 2003); Mohammed Danjuma Goje’s victory (Gombe, ANPP, 2003). When Buhari moved to CPC, his influence alone installed many politicians. In Katstina North, Hadi Abubakar Sirika was elected senator on CPC’s ticket in 2011, Mohammed Sani Saleh in Kaduna North and a host of others. (Buhari is from Katsina and lived in Kaduna).

In the just concluded, Anambra gubernatorial election, the Labour Party’s gubernatorial candidate, George Moghalu, campaigned on what he termed ‘Mr. Peter Obi’s achievements in Anambra’ and how he wants to continue with those achievements. Peter Obi’s pictures were even bigger that Mr. Moghalu’s pictures in most of Moghalu’s campaign bill boards. Mr. Obi begged people to vote for George Moghalu, including the people in his village, but his candidate lost abysmally. Mr. George Moghalu, Peter Obi’s candidate, got less than 1.81% of cast vote.

The coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Dr. Yunusa Tanko, and Peter Obi’s media aide, Valentine Obienyem, have also tried to make all kinds of circular arguments to justify Obi’s performance in the just concluded Anambra elections. Despite the fact that the whole state was filled with joy after the announcement of Governor Soludo’s victory, they argue that voters were not allowed to vote freely and that Obi was not in the ballot. ‘’The Anambra election, like many before it, produced a result. But that result must be read against the backdrop of endemic vote-buying, civic fatigue, and the politics of short-term gain. Blaming one man for his party’s performance misses the point. The deeper question is whether the people’s vote was free and fair – and if not, what we must do, as citizens and institutions, to rebuild the moral fabric of our democracy’’, Valentine Obienyem argued in a recent piece. To be clear: the just concluded elections in Anambra was one of the most transparent elections in the history of Nigeria.

Let’s even assume, for a second, that Valentine Obienyem’s argument is correct. What level of monetary inducement would make the kindred of a popular politician vote against the candidate he supports. Such would never happen to a politician like Buhari in his days in the opposition. It is even more embarrassing when one considers that one’s polling booth is filled with one’s relatives and kindred in Anambra. This is because most politicians and people vote in their villages in Anambra.

In the 2023 presidential elections, many factors came into play and these factors no longer exist. The factors that came into play in 2023 include: religious sentiments because of the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket; youth mobilization as a result of the momentum from the #EndSars movement; Obi’s perception as a clean and frugal politician; Diaspora support; protest vote against APC and PDP which were Nigeria’s main political parties; Labour Party’s public perception as a neutral party; Obi’s largely incoherent message on his plan for the economy; the massive volunteer structure created by the Labour Party; the impact of the social media and the public perception of Obi as a humble and frugal person.

Most of these factors will not fly in 2027. President Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket will not provoke the kind of emotions it did in 2023 in 2027. Peter Obi’s Labour Party – even the ADC – are in shambles. It will be difficult for another southerner to be elected President in 2027 as this will distort the gentleman zoning arrangement between the south and north. (Any elected southerner apart from President Tinubu will spend another eight years from 2027 and this will delay the anticipated coming of a northern president in 2031). In 2023, northern governors unanimously argued that it was the turn of the south. Besides, President Tinubu has not done badly on the economy and he is on track to further strengthen it.

It is very likely that President Tinubu will have a landslide victory in 2027 because there will be no viable opposition. This was the case in Anambra in the last election. There was actually no opposition to Governor Chukwuma Soludo in the just concluded Anambra election. Also, Governor Soludo’s performance so far as governor has been impressive and the electorate rewarded him for his performance.

Nwankwo is the special adviser to Soludo on special projects