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Na cloud seeding cause di recent flooding for Dubai?

Some posts for social media don claim sey di heavy rain wey recently scatter di United Arab Emirates (UAE) na sake of cloud seeding.

Di claim, wey dey X, Facebook, and Instagram, tok sey di UAE dey suffer di consequences of di artificial rain wey dem create.

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RECORD-BREAKING RAIN FOR DUBAI

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On April 17, water swallow some parts of Dubai after rain of one year fall inside one day. Di tin cause heavy floods and make pipu abandon dia vehicles for highway.

Di rainfall disturb airport operation and dey linked to di deaths of about 19 persons for Oman, while dem declare two persons missing.

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Dubai na one of di seven emirates of di UAE. Sake of na desert city, evri month dey hot for di emirate.

Di UAE get dry desert climate with two major seasons —winter and summer. During di summer season (June to September), di temperature dey extremely high and fit rise go 50°C. Di winter season (December to March) get temperatures wey dey range from 16.4°C to 24°C, with January as di coldest month.

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Since 1949, wen di kontri begin dey record climate, experts tok sey na di first time wey UAE don experience dis kain rain and flood.

Di kontri National Centre of Meteorology tok sey di rain contribute significantly to di increase for di kontri annual average rainfall and im help increase di kontri groundwater reserves.

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WETIN BE CLOUD SEEDING?

Cloud seeding na form of weather modification wey dey plant special kind salt inside cloud to produce more rain. Kontris for di desert or drought-prone areas like di UAE sometimes dey do cloud seeding make rain fall.

Di process dey start with di identification of di suitable clouds through weather monitoring and analysis to produce di best outcome, and timing di rain to sabi wen dem need am pass. Dem go come send aeroplane wey dey loaded with seeding agent for im wings to di nearest cloud make dem create more water droplets. Na dese droplets naim dey subsequently mix come fall as rain.

Seeding agents include salts like silver iodide, potassium iodide, sodium chloride, or dry ice (solid carbon dioxide).

Howeva, in natural cause, rain dey hapun wen water molecules evaporate into di cloud through process called evaporation. E go come move from im gaseous state to liquid, usually, through one process wey dem dey call condensation. Wen these water droplets become too heavy to stay  for cloud, dem go fall as rain— precipitation.

CLOUD SEEDING FIT PRODUCE DI KAIN RAIN WEY FALL FOR DUBAI?

Even though cloud seeding dey increase rainfall, scientists tok sey im no fit create clouds.

While normal rainfall dey between 2.5 mm per hour and 7.5mm per hour, UAE highest annual rainfall na 147.53 mm in 1976, dat is  57.53 mm higher dan di rain wey fall recently. Normal year dey get annual rainfall of about 59.73.

For interview with GB News, Maarten Ambaum, meteorologist for di University of Reading, tok sey di UAE no get di operational cloud seeding programme wey fit cause di kain rain wey dem see for April 17.

Im also tok sey di kontri no do any recent cloud seeding operation, sey di cloud don already dey predicted to produce a substantial amount of rain.

“Di UAE no get operational cloud seeding programme to cause di kain rainfall for dis dry part of di world, howeva, e no get any kain technology wey dey dis world wey fit create or even severely modify dis kain rain wey fall. Also, no cloud seeding operations don hapun for dis place recently,” na so Ambaum tok.

“Cloud seeding, as di name suggest, dey generally involve spreading fine particles into existing clouds into which conditions of wind, moisture and dust no dey enough to cause rain. For dis particular case, benefit for no dey to seed these clouds becos dem bin don already predict sey dem fit produce enough rain.

“E also dey important to know sey forecasters, including di Global Flood Awareness System (Glofas) wey dey run by di European Commission as part of di Copernicus programme, bin dey very accurately forecast high risk of floods across a wide area of di region a full week ago. Forecasting systems like these ones dey use detailed observations of conditions for sea, air and land, come combine them for forecast models to predict future flood events. If these models bin dey predict sey floods dey highly likely one week ago, e dey unlikely sey human beings fit do something about am other dan to clear road.”

WETIN WE CHECK

TheCable tok with Taiwo Ogunwumi, flood risk consultant for Geohazard Risk Mapping Initiative, to understand di reason behind di torrential rainfall for Dubai. Ogunwunmi tok sey greenhouse emissions caused by human activities fit dey part of reasons.

Im tok sey although cloud seeding fit cause pluvial flood — wen di amount of rain pass di capacity di ground fit absorb —  di April 17 downpour no fit dey outrightly linked to cloud seeding since dem bin already forecast sey rain go fall dat day.

“On a general note, cloud seeding fit lead to pluvial flooding, as we all know sey di major objective of cloud seeding na to artificially produce more rainfall for areas wey dey constantly experience drought or low rainfall patterns,” na so Ogunwumi tok.

“For di case of di Dubai flood, we no fit categorically attribute di cause of di flood to cloud seeding, simply because forecast already predict di changes for rainfall amount ahead of di day wey di flood hapun, and some of dis climate change forecast no dey include cloud seeding factors.

“Di human contribution through greenhouse gas emissions go continue dey make di climate warm and go subsequently cause rain to increase. Di latest IPCC report still underscore di likelihood of significant changes for climate dynamics. E go dey more advisable if we no use di cloud seeding factor as tori wey go distract us from di real cause of climate change impacts.”

Gloria Okafor, lecturer for di department of meteorology and climate change, Nigerian Maritime University, Delta state, folo chuk mouth for di mata and she tok sey di UAE rain pass cloud seeding mata.

Okafor linked di rain with scientists’ prediction of di world’s transition into di El Nino period.

“I go tok sey weather dey unpredictable, though cloud seeding dey produce rain, dis one plenti wella,” na so Okafor tok

“Howeva, I go link am with wetin scientists bin tok, sey dis year currently dey El Nino period —dat is wen you normal above-sea surface temperature dey increase from di Pacific Ocean, wey go get impact for global climate patterns. Na wetin I fit tok dey make dis kain tin possible.”

According to one study wey ResearchGate publish, El Niño na climate pattern wey describe di unusual warming of surface waters for di eastern Pacific Ocean. During any El Niño event, westward-blowing trade winds dey weaken along di equator. These changes for air pressure and wind speed dey cause warm surface water to move eastward along di equator, from di western Pacific to di coast of northern South America.

FINAL TOK

E no get any sufficient evidence to support di claim wey tok sey cloud seeding naim cause di Dubai flood.

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